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如此下跌,分级基金活不过2019年!

时间:2018-12-27 17:57:10

1

今日市场在政策面一片利好不断的情况下居然不管不顾地大跌,一举跌破2500点不说,还差点遇上了前低2449点。有网友表示,现在大家对利好政策都没力气解读了,真是跌伤了。

说实话,中小创大跌真是已经见怪不怪了,但是在目前这个点位,上证50还能跌个2%以上实在是出乎意料。目前这一指数已经跌破了2017年1月以来的新低了。难道连国家队也变心了?不爱蓝筹爱科创?

这样的跌法,最受伤害的就是各种各样的分级基金,盘中一度有10多只分级b跌向跌停,到收市,随着大盘反攻拉回2500点,这些分级b也纷纷离开跌停板,但仍有4只股票型分级基金跌幅超过9%。

今日收盘价低于0.45元的分级B:

从今日收盘的价格来看,已经有13只分级基金b 的二级市场交易价格低于0.45元了,而来自鑫财通的数据显示,目前已经有19只基金面临下折的险境了。

在这19只分级B基金中,有些份额只有几百万份了,如果再次下折四合一的话,那么这些基金的份额就只有100万份了。在这19只面临下折的基金中,目前规模最大的是国防B,还有8亿多份额,其净值为0.28元,这意味着,如果相关板块只要跌3%,这只分级B就会跌12%,进入折算,这样,规模就缩小到2亿份了。规模第二大的中小B,目前份额也只有1.56亿份,一旦折算,不论是规模还是净值,都将下降到4000万以下。而份额最小的1000B,目前份额就只有159万了,再折算一下,份额将不足40万了!

2

证券市场最厉害之处就是牵一发而动全身,这些小分级基金如果按迷你基金的标准统统清盘的话,会在市场上再次形成一个较为集中的卖压,而相关个股的估值降低的话,又会因为比价原因导致其它个股的价格下跌。

所以,如果这20只基金中,19只基金都因为折算而出现份额与净值不足5000万,因而需要集中进入清算程序的话,那么其合力清算带来的卖盘,在目前买家几无进场意愿的情况下,或将再次对股市带来沉重的抛压。

更为严重的是,资产新规原本为减少清理分级基金给市场带来的抛压,曾经给出了两年的清理期,但是受到预期转差的严重影响,目前来看,按现在这种跌法,不到2020年,分级基金就有可能绝迹了。

目前规模在10亿以上的分级B(有折算安排的)只有两只了,一只是创业板b,规模为26亿份,另一只是券商b,规模为19亿份,其余的规模均不足3.5亿份了。换句话说,如果一年内这些基金只要折算一次,那么规模过亿的分级b就仅有2只了!这还是假定投资者不赎回的情况下的推算!

想当年,一只分级B的规模就可以上百亿,现在,几十只分级b加起来的总规模也到不了百亿!市场冷暖,谁投资,谁知道!

3

资产新规对证券市场的最严重影响,最先开始的是私募基金的结构化产品,然后轮到上市公司大股东的质押盘爆仓,最后到公募基金中非常受欢迎的分级基金消亡,一个不断消灭投资者的市场,讲什么估值底、政策底,感觉都相当可笑。

更何况,一个个本本分分投资绩优股的投资人,被长生生物这样的“绩优股”欺诈之后,居然只能自认倒霉,因为公司可能剩下的一点渣,都被与中小股东无关的机构瓜分了。而最可笑的是,11份出台的法律,可以把7月份发生的事情装进去。这样的话,你今天所做的任何事情都有可能是犯法了,因为没有人知道以后会出什么样的法规把什么样的行为装进去。

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金小程序~

双语阅读~

Today's market in the face of a favorable policy situation, regardless of the big drop, fell below 2,500 points in one fell swoop, but also almost met the previous low of 2,449 points. Some netizens said that now everyone has no strength to interpret the favorable policies, it is really a fall.

To be honest, it’s no surprise that the small and medium-sized stocks have fallen, but at this point, it’s unexpected that the SSE 50 can still fall by more than 2%. The index has now fallen below the new low since January 2017. Doesn't the national team want to love blue chips?

This kind of falling method, the most hurt is the various graded funds. In the intraday, there were more than 10 grades b falling to the limit, to the close, with the market counterattack pulling back 2500 points, these grades b also left the daily limit However, there are still 4 stock-type rating funds falling more than 9%.

From the price of today's closing, there are already 13 tiered funds b. The secondary market transaction price is lower than 0.45 yuan, and the data from Xincaitong shows that there are already 19 funds facing the danger of falling.

Of the 19 tiered B funds, some share only a few million. If you fold down four in one, then these funds have a share of only 1 million. Among the 19 funds that face the next discount, the largest one is the national defense B, and there are more than 800 million shares. The net value is 0.28 yuan, which means that if the relevant sector only drops 3%, this grade B will It fell 12% and entered the conversion, so the scale was reduced to 200 million. The second largest small and medium-sized B has a current share of only 156 million. Once converted, both scale and net worth will fall below 40 million. The smallest share of 1000B, the current share is only 1.59 million, and then converted, the share will be less than 400,000!

The most powerful part of the securities market is to take the initiative to move all over the body. If these small-level funds are liquidated according to the standards of the mini-funds, they will form a more concentrated selling pressure in the market, and if the valuation of the relevant stocks is lowered, In addition, the price of other stocks will fall due to the price comparison.

Therefore, if 19 of these 20 funds have a share and a net value of less than 50 million due to conversion, and therefore need to concentrate on the liquidation process, then the sales brought by the combined liquidation will not enter the market at present. In the case of willingness, it will once again bring heavy selling pressure to the city.

What is more serious is that the new asset regulations originally reduced the selling pressure brought by the clearing and grading fund to the market. It has given a two-year clean-up period, but it has been seriously affected by the expected slip. Falling the law, less than 2020, the classification fund may be extinct.

At present, there are only two grade B (with conversion arrangements) with a scale of more than 1 billion. One is the GEM, the scale is 2.6 billion, and the other is only the brokerage b. The scale is 1.9 billion, and the rest are less than 3.5. Billion share. In other words, if these funds are converted once in a year, then there are only 2 grades with a scale of over 100 million! This is still assuming that the investor does not redeem the calculations!

In the past, the scale of a grade B can reach tens of billions. Now, the total scale of dozens of grades b can't reach tens of billions! The market is warm and cold, who invests, who knows!

The most serious impact of the new asset rules on the securities market, the first is the structured products of private equity funds, and then the turn of the pledge of the major shareholders of listed companies, and finally the grading of the very popular grading funds in public funds, one It is quite ridiculous to constantly eliminate the market of investors and talk about the bottom of the valuation and the bottom of the policy.

What's more, investors who invest in high-quality stocks by themselves have been deceived by the "competent stocks" such as Changsheng Bio. They can only admit that they are unlucky, because the company may leave a little bit of residue, which is divided by institutions that have nothing to do with small and medium shareholders. It is. The most ridiculous thing is that 11 laws have been introduced to put things happening in July. In this case, anything you do today may be illegal, because no one knows what kind of regulations will be put in the future.

本文首发于微信公众号:平点金基。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

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