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继续偏爱融资者,哪位金主直接跪了?

时间:2018-11-10 17:50:24

01

在央行行长易纲表态要拿出真金白银支持民企发展后,银保监会就提出了要向民企融资送出“及时雨”:要在三年以后,银行业对民营企业的贷款占新增公司类贷款的比例不低于50%!

事实上,在民营上市公司纷纷因为前几年太过乐观,贷了过多的钱去扩张之际,又赶上了经济增长乏力,外贸环境转差、以及叠加了一系列的去杠杆的政策,导致现在流动性陷入枯竭。易纲在讲话中也表示很清楚问题的症结:那就是各项紧缩的政策相互叠加,令企业面对的形势就加倍严重起来。这个道理很好理解,十个金融部门为了自己完成去杠杆的要求,都要求贷款者提前归还贷款,那么贷款人承受的就是贷款全部抽回,流动性便迅速枯竭,除了卖资产,别无它途。

既然知道了政策的叠加效果几乎是指数型的,为啥现在放水又来一个大叠加呢?在地方政府筹备解困资金、券商筹备解困资金的情况下,当然也有保险与信托机构出钱来干这生意的,现在银行貌似又要大放水了。

02

真是早知如此,何必当初呢?当初资管新规征求意见,大家都反应去杠杆太急了,不听,非说大家不了解情况,没有站在大局考虑问题。好了,这才通过生效不到十个月吧,又急得团团转,在想怎么放杠杆了。最新的消息是:国常会要求加大金融支持,解决中小企业融资难、融资贵的问题,同时决定将MLF合格担保标准扩大!其中最最重要的要点来了:力争在四季度金融机构新发放的小微企业平均贷款利率比一季度降低一个百分点!

这下你知道哪位金主直接跪了吧?就是银行啊!存款利息不能降,新增的小微贷收益要降一个百分点!小微企业因为本身的经营风险高,本来贷款就是要贵一些才能弥补成本,现在好了,刚收回来的质量不错的贷款,又要冒着更大的风险、低收益地放出去!

今日上海银行分时图:

估计是刚收回来的杠杆真是不好意思又追着人家放,然后新的小微企业真是不敢贷。结果只能是狂买政府债,今日瞄了一眼,地方政府的平台债居然有了50倍的认购了,疯狂的劲头又上来了。融资者的天堂又来了。

然后,一直说要保护投资者利益的证监会,也凑热闹去叠加政策:再次对融资方高抬贵手:继此前把IPO被否企业借壳上市的时间从三年缩短到6个月后,又要积极推出注册制搞科创板,然后,今天还宣布:允许前次募集资金基本使用完毕或募集资金投向未发生变更且按计划投入的上市公司,申请增发、配股、非公开发行股票不受18个月融资间隔限制!但是原则上不得少于6个月!

现在的投资者面对融资间隔18个月都招架不住了,不说从5178点跌到2499点已经腰斩,就是今年上证指数也已经下跌了约28%了!多少个股市值已经腰斩再腰斩,还要放宽再融资间隔,融资速度不但不减,还要提速3倍!?

03

中国股市20年来,融了多少钱?可是为什么投的钱越多,企业越缺钱了呢?要求融资的企业每周都有,可是分红的企业是每周都有吗?有多少企业能让投资者感觉投资是有回报的?企业是值得投资的?我们总说好企业去了国外,其实这是最大的谎言,好企业我们确实是都留给A股了,但是我们的A股却演变成企业经营的终极目标,只要上市,想的就是怎么高位套现了!我们的监管没有放在要企业真心实意出效益上,而是任由上市公司财务造假,炒高股票高位套现走人!

看下今天的跌幅榜,金主是不是已经带头给跪了?

(数据来源同花顺(300033,股吧),下同)

大家可以仔细地再看一下,银行与保险两大行业板块,不但跌幅分别是老大老二,更厉害的是,居然没有一个领涨品种啊!28家银行与7家保险公司,今日无一上涨!

再看分级B,表现更加明显。

今日跌幅最大的十只分级B基金:

金融地B直接跌停,当然它的成交量太小,或许没有什么代表性。此外几只银行类的分级B的跌幅也都超过5%了。本来银行是估值最低的板块,相对分红又比较高,设计成分级B是非常好的产品,没想到,只要政策到位,也一样可以跌入跌幅榜前列!下面没有几只成交量较大的银行分级B,跌幅全都在4.5%以上。

就连银行ETF,都跌了3%,跌到折价了,这说明有经验的投资者其实早就不看好银行板块了。

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金小程序~

双语阅读~

Continue to favor the financiers,

which gold master directly smashed?

After the central bank governor Yi Gang stated that he wanted to come up with real money to support the development of private enterprises, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed to send “timely rain” to private enterprises: after three years, the banking industry’s loans to private enterprises accounted for new companies. The proportion of loans is not less than 50%!

In fact, in the private listed companies have been too optimistic in the past few years, lending too much money to expand, but also caught up with the lack of economic growth, the deterioration of the foreign trade environment, and a series of de-leverage policies This has led to the current depletion of liquidity. In his speech, Yi Gang also said that the crux of the problem is very clear: that is, the policies of various tightening are superimposed on each other, and the situation faced by enterprises is doubled. This principle is very understandable. Ten financial departments require the lender to return the loan in advance in order to complete the delevering requirement. The lender is allotted the loan, and the liquidity is quickly exhausted. Except for selling assets, there is no such thing. way.

Now that we know that the superposition effect of the policy is almost exponential, why is there a big superposition of water now? In the case of local governments to solve the problem of funds and brokers to solve the problem of relief funds, of course, there are insurance and trust institutions to pay for this business, and now the bank seems to have to release water.

I really knew this, why should I be at the beginning? When the newly-invested new regulations solicited opinions, everyone responded that the deleveraging was too urgent, and did not listen, not to say that everyone did not understand the situation and did not consider the issue in the overall situation. Ok, this is only less than ten months after it has been in force, and it’s anxious to turn around and think about how to put leverage. The latest news is: The National Council will ask for increased financial support to solve the problem of financing difficulties and financing for SMEs, and at the same time decide to expand the MLF qualified guarantee standard! One of the most important points came: Strive to reduce the average lending rate of small and micro enterprises newly issued by financial institutions in the fourth quarter by one percentage point from the first quarter!

Do you know which gold master is directly smashed? It is the bank! Deposit interest can not be reduced, the new small micro-loan income will be reduced by one percentage point! Because of the high operational risks of small and micro enterprises, the original loan is more expensive to make up for the cost. Now, the good quality loan that has just been recovered must be released with greater risk and low profit!

It is estimated that the lever that has just been recovered is really embarrassing and chasing others, and then the new small and micro enterprises are really afraid to lend. The result can only be a mad purchase of government bonds. Today, I took a glance. The local government’s platform debt actually had 50 times of subscription, and the crazy energy came up again. The paradise of financiers is coming again.

Then, the CSRC, which has always said that it wants to protect the interests of investors, has also joined in the fun of superimposing the policy: once again raising the high-handedness to the financing side: following the previous period of shortening the IPO by the company’s backdoor listing from three years to six months, it is necessary to actively launch The registration system was used to create a board, and then announced today: Allowing the basic use of the previous fundraising or the raised funds to be invested in a listed company that has not changed and invested as planned, applying for additional issuance, allotment, and non-public offering of shares for 18 months. Financing interval limit! But in principle it must be no less than 6 months!

Today's investors can't stand up to the financing interval of 18 months. Not to mention that they have fallen from 5178 points to 2499 points. This year, the Shanghai Composite Index has also fallen by about 28%! How many stock market values have already been swayed, and the refinancing interval has to be relaxed. The financing speed will not be reduced, but it will be 3 times faster! ?

How much has the Chinese stock market melted in the past 20 years? But why is the more money invested, the more money the company lacks? Companies that require financing are available every week, but are dividend-paying companies available every week? How many companies can make investors feel that investment is rewarding? Is the enterprise worth investing? We always say that good companies have gone abroad. In fact, this is the biggest lie. We are really reserved for A-shares, but our A-shares have evolved into the ultimate goal of business management. As long as we go public, we think about how to cash out. Now! Our supervision has not been placed on the company's sincere intention to benefit, but to allow listed companies to make financial fraud, and to speculate on high stocks to go away!

Looking at today's falling list, has the gold master already taken the lead?

(Data source is flush, the same below)

Everyone can look at it carefully. The two major sectors of the banking and insurance sectors are not only the bosses, but also the most powerful ones. 28 banks and 7 insurance companies have not risen today!

Looking at the rating B, the performance is more obvious.

Ten rating B funds with the biggest decline today:

Financial land B directly falls, of course, its trading volume is too small, perhaps not representative. In addition, the rating B of several banking classes has also fallen by more than 5%. Originally, the bank was the lowest valuation sector, and the relative dividends were relatively high. The design level B was a very good product. I did not expect that as long as the policy is in place, it can fall into the forefront of the decline list! There are not a few banks with a large volume of transactions below, and the declines are all above 4.5%.

Even the bank ETFs fell by 3% and fell to a discount. This shows that experienced investors have long been unaware of the banking sector.

本文首发于微信公众号:平点金基。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

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